House prices in Brisbane’s most expensive Oympic suburb are tipped to race past $5 million in the year after the Games, a new report shows.
One year on from the host city announcement, the report by PRD Real Estate crunched the numbers to predict price growth, based on how the local market performed in the wake of another big international event, the G20 Brisbane Summit in 2014.
The gold medal went to Hamilton in the city’s inner east — the site of the Athletes’ Village — where house prices were predicted to hit $5.3m. The suburb’s current house price is $2.2m.
Chandler and Alexandra Headland (Sunshine Coast) would both break the $4m median mark, while prices in Woolloongabba, South Brisbane, Herston, Spring Hill and Twin Waters (Sunshine Coast) would rise to about $3m.
Median prices would top $1m in more affordable areas including Ipswich, Redland Bay and Coomera (Gold Coast).
PRD chief economist and report author Diaswati Mardiasmo said the figures were reached by applying the same percentage of growth experienced in the ten-year lead-up to the G20 Summit, as well as the year afterwards.
Median house prices in South Bank and surrounding suburbs grew by an average of 111.6 per cent between 2003 and 2015.
“Regardless of the economic factors of the time, whether it’s the cash rate or the financial crisis or a recession, when we look at major events that have been hosted by Qld or Australia, whether that’s the G20 Brisbane Summit or the Brisbane Expo 1988 or the Sydney Olympics 2000, every time there has been a pattern of price growth that follows,” Dr Mardiasmo said.
The report also examined the state of infrastructure and housing development as a predictor of growth — with more than half the 14 key areas surveyed found to be lacking future supply.
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They were: Hamilton, Tennyson, Chandler, Herston, Spring Hill, Beaudesert, Alexandra Headland, Twin Waters.
“Coomera, Broadbeach, Woolloongabba, South Brisbane, Redland Bay and Ipswich showcase plans for future supply,” Dr Mardiasmo said.
“New dwellings are in short supply, suggesting potential high price growth in the near future.”
Continued high levels of migration and increased employment opportunities generated by the Games would only add to housing demand.
The report found residential development between 2022 and 2026 was skewed towards units, while the majority of new land lots were located on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.
“The Olympics had long-term effects to previous host cities, with a strong tendency for housing supply and demand to increase, leading to healthy price growth,” Dr Mardiasmo said.
“This is often due to athletes’ villages in main CBD areas becoming vacant and serving as build-to-rent accommodation for a variety of owner-occupiers and investors — key positive examples of this are Sydney, Tokyo and Beijing.
“The issue with the Olympics and other international games is that a lack of planning and management can lead to an under-utilisation of new supply, as seen in the Rio and Athens Olympic games,” she said.
>>>>> KEY OLYMPIC SUBURBS <<<<<
Suburb 2022 house price projected growth (based on G20 average)
Hamilton $2.2m $5.3m
Tennyson $850,000 $1.8m
Chandler $1.98m $4.19m
Woolloongabba $1.4m $2.94m
South Brisbane $1.34m $2.82m
Redland Bay $827,500 $1.75m
Ipswich $475,000 $1.15m
Herston $1.56m $3.29m
Spring Hill $1.38m $2.91m
Beaudesert $490,000 $1.04m
Coomera $710,000 $1.5m
Broadbeach $770,000(units) $1.63m
Alexandra H’land $2.25m $4.76m
Twin Waters $1.45m $3.07m
* source: PRD Real Estate
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